MYANMAR

Solar to Power Up Myanmar’s Agricultural Economy

Around 70%50 of Myanmar’s 56 million residents51 have basic access to grid-electricity. But the grid is extremely unreliable and every factory that depends on electricity needs diesel backup generators. These backup systems are expensive, polluting, and unwieldy to operate.52

MYANMAR

Solar to Power Up Myanmar’s Agricultural Economy

Around 70%50 of Myanmar’s 56 million residents51 have basic access to grid-electricity. But the grid is extremely unreliable and every factory that depends on electricity needs diesel backup generators. These backup systems are expensive, polluting, and unwieldy to operate.52

The national electric grid depends heavily on hydropower stations that underproduce during the four-month dry season. Even when those generators operate at full capacity, they cannot fully address demand in the country’s commercial center of Yangon. Despite Myanmar’s current recession, and the grid’s focus on Yangon, the city still has an estimated electricity generation shortfall of some 200 MW.53 In smaller cities and rural areas, the power shortages are far worse.

Agriculture is the backbone of Myanmar’s economy, but productivity is low relative to neighboring countries. Rice accounts for about a third of agricultural output, with much of the value coming from milling the grain.54 Rice processing is energy intensive, and Myanmar’s mills are old and inefficient, resulting in low yields, poor quality, disappointing financial returns, lack of investment, and economic stagnation for rural communities.

The same dynamic is holding back growth in rubber, aquaculture, and other agricultural industries. Myanmar has excellent conditions for rubber production and is the world’s sixth largest producer,55 but productivity per hectare is roughly half that of neighbors like Thailand and Malaysia.56

While natural latex from trees is generally of similar quality regardless of processing, processed rubber is not. Without modern electric-powered machinery, Myanmar produces lower quality rubber that fetches lower market prices.57

Aquaculture has great potential for Myanmar’s economy. It is labor-intensive, requiring four times more person-hours per cultivated acre than traditional agriculture, and with wages 27% higher than traditional farming.58

To increase revenue, Myanmar fish farmers need to produce more fish, produce higher-value species, and process fish into products like filets. This requires pumping, water treatment, aeration, and cold storage. All these activities require electricity, and investment in needed equipment is not economical without reliable and affordable power.

Myanmar requires a shift to distributed electrification to accelerate its agricultural development and support critical value chains, particularly in rural areas that lie more than 10km from the national grid. This need is particularly acute in 2022, given reduced grid reliability and increased costs for diesel.

Drawing in part on lessons learned from its sister organization in India, Smart Power Myanmar (SPM) is now working with the Alliance and USAID-funded private sector partners to bring off-grid solar power to rural enterprises that can immediately use electricity to expand output, improve quality, create/sustain jobs, and reduce reliance on polluting diesel generation.

SPM and Alliance partners are working to de-risk lending for solar systems and providing technical assistance to help design and source solar systems. With this combination of technical support and blended finance, small-scale commercial solar for agriculture and aquaculture value-chain businesses in Myanmar can be developed with local capital and local engineering.

With increased availability of high-quality, reliable, and zero-marginal-cost electricity, Myanmar’s agricultural sector stands to improve output and wages while also cutting the carbon emissions associated with diesel power. Rice milling, aquaculture, rubber processing, cold storage, oil seeds, tea processing, horticulture and more all offer enormous opportunities for growth. Everything depends on electricity.

GEAPP expects that by 2030, SPM will have deployed some 300 solar systems with a generation capacity of about 109 MW of electricity.

The economic development powered by this solar will directly improve some 13,000 jobs and positively impact another 160,000 livelihoods. Because this energy is from a renewable source, it will reduce emissions by 326,000 tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030.

Agriculture is the backbone of Myanmar’s economy, but productivity is low relative to neighboring countries. Rice accounts for about a third of agricultural output, with much of the value coming from milling the grain.54 Rice processing is energy intensive, and Myanmar’s mills are old and inefficient, resulting in low yields, poor quality, disappointing financial returns, lack of investment, and economic stagnation for rural communities.

The same dynamic is holding back growth in rubber, aquaculture, and other agricultural industries. Myanmar has excellent conditions for rubber production and is the world’s sixth largest producer,55 but productivity per hectare is roughly half that of neighbors like Thailand and Malaysia.56

While natural latex from trees is generally of similar quality regardless of processing, processed rubber is not. Without modern electric-powered machinery, Myanmar produces lower quality rubber that fetches lower market prices.57

Aquaculture has great potential for Myanmar’s economy. It is labor-intensive, requiring four times more person-hours per cultivated acre than traditional agriculture, and with wages 27% higher than traditional farming.58

To increase revenue, Myanmar fish farmers need to produce more fish, produce higher-value species, and process fish into products like filets. This requires pumping, water treatment, aeration, and cold storage. All these activities require electricity, and investment in needed equipment is not economical without reliable and affordable power.

Myanmar requires a shift to distributed electrification to accelerate its agricultural development and support critical value chains, particularly in rural areas that lie more than 10km from the national grid. This need is particularly acute in 2022, given reduced grid reliability and increased costs for diesel.

Drawing in part on lessons learned from its sister organization in India, Smart Power Myanmar (SPM) is now working with the Alliance and USAID-funded private sector partners to bring off-grid solar power to rural enterprises that can immediately use electricity to expand output, improve quality, create/sustain jobs, and reduce reliance on polluting diesel generation.

SPM and Alliance partners are working to de-risk lending for solar systems and providing technical assistance to help design and source solar systems. With this combination of technical support and blended finance, small-scale commercial solar for agriculture and aquaculture value-chain businesses in Myanmar can be developed with local capital and local engineering.

With increased availability of high-quality, reliable, and zero-marginal-cost electricity, Myanmar’s agricultural sector stands to improve output and wages while also cutting the carbon emissions associated with diesel power. Rice milling, aquaculture, rubber processing, cold storage, oil seeds, tea processing, horticulture and more all offer enormous opportunities for growth. Everything depends on electricity.

GEAPP expects that by 2030, SPM will have deployed some 300 solar systems with a generation capacity of about 109 MW of electricity.

The economic development powered by this solar will directly improve some 13,000 jobs and positively impact another 160,000 livelihoods. Because this energy is from a renewable source, it will reduce emissions by 326,000 tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030.

Over the lives of these systems, they will reduce CO2 emissions by 2.5 million tons, which is equivalent to all the emissions produced in a year by over 300,000 typical EU residents.

13000 +
jobs improved and another 160,000 impacted livelihoods.
326K+
CO2
End of life: 2.5 million CO2e

Footnotes

  1. Source: IEA, “Global energy crisis shows urgency of accelerating investment in cheaper and cleaner energy in Africa”; available at: https://w/ww.iea.org/news/global-energy-crisis-shows-urgency-of-accelerating-investment-in-cheaper-and-cleaner-energy-in-africa
  2. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  3. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  4. Source: IEA, SDG7: Data and Projections; available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections
  5. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  6. Source: SEforAll “Lasting Impact: Sustainable Off-Grid Solar Delivery Models to Power Health and Education” (2019), available at: https://www.seforall.org/publications/lasting-impact-sustainable-off-grid-solar-delivery-models
  7. Source: 60_decibels: Uses and Impacts of Solar Water Pumps; available at: https://storage.googleapis.com/e4a-website-assets/Use-and-Impacts-of-SWPs-July-2021-v2.pdf
  8. Source: Authors’ calculations assuming average-sized smartphone battery (4,000 mAh, 3.8V; 15 Wh) and average electricity rates in the US and Europe ($0.15- $0.30 per kWh) vs. typical charging service cost in developing contexts.
  9. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/industry_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/financial+institutions/resources/dirty-footprint-of-broken-grid
  10. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/industry_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/financial+institutions/resources/dirty-footprint-of-broken-grid
  11. Source: World Bank, Underutilized Potential: The Business Costs of Unreliable Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 2019; Available at: https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/1813-9450-8899
  12. Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys; available at: https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/enterprisesurveys
  13. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset, IEA per capita electricity consumption data
  14. Source: Energy for Growth Hub, The Modern Energy Minimum; Available at: https://www.energyforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/01/FULL-Modern-Energy-Minimum-final-Jan2021.pdf
  15. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging US EIA data for US historicals, IEA per capita electricity consumption data, and World Bank country designations.
  16. Source: IEA Data Browser, Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  17. Source: Authors’ calculations based on regression analysis of per capita GDP and electricity consumption data vs. HDI score
  18. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging IEA per capita electricity consumption data, IEA residential share of electricity consumption data, and UN DESA World Population Prospects 2022 medium variant projections (all publicly available).
  19. Source: IEA Data Browser, Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  20. Authors’ calculations based on IEA, Tracking Transport 2021, available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/transport
  21. Solar PV indirect emissions occur during the manufacturing, distribution, installation, and disposal of systems component
  22. Source: IRENA, Power Generation Costs, 2021; Available at: https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2021
  23. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Battery Pack Prices Fall to an Average of $132/kWh, But Rising Commodity Prices Start to Bite”, available at: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/
  24. Source: IEA, Annual energy storage additions by country, 2015-2020; available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-energy-storage-additions-by-country-2015-2020
  25. Source: Author’s calculations leveraging NREL’s U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks: Q1 2021
  26. Source: Rockefeller Foundation, Electrifying Economies; Available at: https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/rf-microsites/electrifying-economies/
  27. Source: SEIA, “Solar Industry Research Data”; available at: https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data
  28. Source: Ember Data Explorer; available at: https://ember-climate.org/data/data-explorer/
  29. Source: Author modeling leveraging data from CAIT and assuming that OECD countries reach net zero by 2050, emerging economies by 2060, and energy-poor countries by 2070, with emissions growth reversed in the latter by 2040
  30. Source: Author modeling leveraging data from CAIT and assuming that emissions grow at a CAGR of 2.8 percent per year through 2050 and 1.4 percent in the following decade, only beginning to decrease starting in 2060.
  31. Source: Author’s calculations based on OPEC crude oil reserves of 267 billion barrels and and 0.3714 tCO2/barrel from ‘Carbon Majors: Accounting for Carbon and Methane Emissions 1854-2010 – Methods & Results Report’

 

GEAPP Program and Partner Project Highlights

  1. Source: Benchmarking Distribution Utilities in India, October 2020, SPI & Niti Aayog; Available at: https://smartpowerindia.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/07/WEB_SPI_Electrification_16.pdf
  2. Source: Rooftop Solar final render; Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wwvbXpuWgs
  3. Source: Rooftop Solar final render; Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wwvbXpuWgs
  4. Source: SPI Customer Report; Available at: https://smartpowerindia.org/smart-power-india-launches-its-report-on-rural-electrification-in-india/
  5. Source: Health Effects of Diesel Exhaust; Available at: https://www.cancer.org/healthy/cancer-causes/chemicals/diesel-exhaust-and-cancer.html ; https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/17/4/733 ; https://oehha.ca.gov/air/health-effects-diesel-exhaust
  6. Source: SPI Deployment estimates
  7. Source: ESMAP, Nigeria Tracking SDG 7, available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/country/nigeria
  8. Authors’ calculation based on IEA 2019 data
  9. Source: FAO,  Nigeria at a Glance, available at: https://www.fao.org/nigeria/fao-in-nigeria/nigeria-at-a-glance/en/
  10. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, available at: https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/
  11. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC
  12. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC
  13. Source: Nigeria Energy Transition Plan, available at: https://www.seforall.org/events/launch-of-nigerias-energy-transition-plan
  14. Source: International Energy Agency Energy Statistics Data Browser; Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  15. Source: International Energy Agency – South Africa; Available at: https://www.iea.org/countries/south-africa
  16. Source: South Africa Department of Energy Energy Balances 2018 (pg. 14); Available at: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2021-South-African-Energy-Sector-Report.pdf
  17. Source: GDP by Country; Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
  18. Source: UNDP Climate Promise – South Africa; Available at: https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/south-africa
  19. Source: World Bank data; available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=MM. However, SPM estimates this number to be closer to 55%.
  20. Source: https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/MM
  21. Source: SPM: Energising Agriculture in Myanmar; available at: https://downloads.ctfassets.net/nvxmg7jt07o2/aw1dQBBaMLxivJ7jRLu4Z/716b0732a3e83bfa6c3bbe50a573f565/Final_SPM-agriculturalvaluechains-final_1.pdf
  22. Source: Fulcrum, “Myanmar’s Post-coup Electricity Woes: Stalled Power Plans, Shattered Public Trust”; available at: https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-post-coup-electricity-woes-stalled-power-plans-shattered-public-trust/
  23. [1]Source: World Bank, Myanmar Rice and Pulses: Farm Production Economics and Value Chain Dynamics (2019); available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/623701579900727742/pdf/Myanmar-Rice-and-Pulses-Farm-Production-Economics-and-Value-Chain-Dynamics.pdf
  24. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  25. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  26. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  27. Source: USAID: Rapid Market Assessment of Aquaculture Sector in Myanmar (2021); available from: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00XCRW.pdf
  28. Source: World Data Population Comparison; Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/populationgrowth.php
  29. Source: GEAPP DREAM Initiative; Available at: https://www.energyalliance.org/news-insights/dream-initiative/
  30. Source: FAO Smallholder Farmer Data Portrait; Available at: https://www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/385074/
  31. Source: GIZ Solar Irrigation Market Analysis in Ethiopia, IWMI/FAO Suitability Framework for Solar Irrigation ; Available at: http://www.practica.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/04/Solar-irrigation-market-Analysis-in-Ethiopia_GIZ-NIRAS-IP-Consult-PRACTICA.pdf
  32. Source: Catalyst calculations leveraging information from the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency Minigrid Viability Report.
  33. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging World Bank Multi-tier Framework
  34. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging GEAPP “Transforming a Billion Lives” Report; Available at: https://www.energyalliance.org/reports/
  35. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging: CDM AMS-I.L. Electrification of rural communities using renewable energy — Version 3.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/CCZKY3FSL1T28BNEGDRSCKS0CY0WVA, CDM AMS-I.F.Renewable electricity generation for captive use and mini-grid — Version 4.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/VLTLVBDOD19GFSTDHAR0CRLUZ6YMGU, CDM AMS-I.B. Mechanical energy for the user with or without electrical energy — Version 12.0; Available at:https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/M204DLP0XMSWSZ9H4SIZ6W86M8RHCM and SE4ALL Emissions Tool; Available at: https://www.seforall.org/mini-grids-emissions-tool
  36. Source: NREL Island Energy Snapshot; Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62708.pdf
  37. Source: Energy Information Administration – Hawaii; Available at: https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=HI
  38. [1]Source:Energy Information Administration – Electric Power Monthly; Available at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
  39. Source: The Socio-Economic Impacts of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) on the Population of Puerto Rico; Available at: https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/PREPA-RSA-Cordero-Guzman-UTIER-REPORT-9-10-19-FIN-ENGLISH.pdf
  40. Source: The Socio-Economic Impacts of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) on the Population of Puerto Rico; Available at: https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/PREPA-RSA-Cordero-Guzman-UTIER-REPORT-9-10-19-FIN-ENGLISH.pdf
  41. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at:https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  42. Source: The World Bank, “Nigeria – Food SmartCountry Diagnostic,” 2020.; Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34522
  43. Source: PWC. Boosting rice production through increased mechanisation, (2018); available from: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/boosting-rice-production-through-increased-mechanisation.html
  44. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Food and Agriculture – Statistical Yearbook 2020. Rome, 2020. doi: 10.4060/cb1329en. ; Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/cb1329en/CB1329EN.pdf
  45. Source: Boosting rice production through increased mechanisation, (2018); available from: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/boosting-rice-production-through-increased-mechanisation.html
  46. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at:https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  47. Source: Prospects for Energy Efficiency in Sierra Leone’s Power Sector; Available at: https://www.energyeconomicgrowth.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Lucas%20Davis%20working%20paper.pdf
  48. Source: Estimations based on GEAPP Jobs report multipliers and International Labour Organization Hydropower Jobs ; Available at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_562269.pdf
  49. Source: Catalyst calculations based on World Bank Multi-tier Framework
  50. Source: CDM AMS-I.L. Electrification of rural communities using renewable energy — Version 3.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/CCZKY3FSL1T28BNEGDRSCKS0CY0WVA
  51. Source: CDM AMS-I.D. Grid connected renewable electricity generation — Version 18.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/W3TINZ7KKWCK7L8WTXFQQOFQQH4SBK
  52. Source: Catalyst calculations based on Tracking SDG 7.
  53. Source: IADB Energia Hub; Available at: https://hubenergia.org/index.php/en/indicators/access-electricity-service
  54. Source: IADB Energia Hub; Available at: https://hubenergia.org/index.php/en/indicators/access-electricity-service
  55. Source: Tracking SDG 7 Report; Available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/country/malawi
  56. Source: IRENA Statistical Profiles – Malawi; Available at: https://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/Statistical_Profiles/Africa/Malawi_Africa_RE_SP.pdf
  57. Source: Catalyst modeling based on expected improvements to power supply reliability for grid-tied customers served by the new BESS and VRE systems.
  58. Source: Catalyst modeling based on storage industry multipliers for direct BESS construction and general economy sector splits for Malawi applied to estimated employment multipliers from GEAPP’s 2021 Jobs Report.
  59. Source: Catalyst modeling based on displacement of stop-gap and backup power sources for households and businesses
  60. IEA Energy Statistics – Indonesia; Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
SOUTH AFRICA
Facilitating a Just Energy Transition
ETHIOPIA
Mini-Grids to Power Agricultural Communities