SOUTH AFRICA

Facilitating a Just Energy Transition

South Africa consumes as much electricity–at 225+ TWh per year–as the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa combined.45 Its main challenge centers around reducing emissions. In 2020, coal accounted for 88% of South Africa’s power generation,46 helping make it the world’s 15th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (depending on source and counting methods),47 despite being the 32nd largest economy by GDP.48 Reducing South Africa’s heavy reliance on coal is a key goal of the country’s Just Energy Transition (JET) program.

SOUTH AFRICA

Facilitating a Just Energy Transition

South Africa consumes as much electricity–at 225+ TWh per year–as the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa combined.45 Its main challenge centers around reducing emissions. In 2020, coal accounted for 88% of South Africa’s power generation,46 helping make it the world’s 15th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (depending on source and counting methods),47 despite being the 32nd largest economy by GDP.48 Reducing South Africa’s heavy reliance on coal is a key goal of the country’s Just Energy Transition (JET) program.

The JET program aims to decarbonize South Africa’s economy while also building climate resilience, improving energy security, and improving the socio-economic conditions of South Africans. This transition will require the South African power sector to develop a range of new capabilities. Government planning and regulatory capacity, clean energy projects, and coal industry worker retraining programs must be quickly developed and scaled up. GEAPP is here to help.

South Africa recently set new emissions reduction goals that are a further 12-30% below the government’s previous ambitious targets.49 To achieve this will require the decommissioning of an estimated 3.4-9.2 GW of coal-fired electricity generation, equivalent to the combined capacity of 10-30 average coal-fired units. It is critical that the decommissioning and repurposing of coal power be done in a way that protects local livelihoods.

A pilot program to decommission the Komati coal-fired power station (in Mpumalanga on the country’s eastern coast) is a key stepping stone for JET. In its heyday, the Komati Power Station had a generation capacity of 1,000 MW and consumed up to 12,000 tons of coal per day from two nearby mines. Between the power station and mines, Komati once provided decent livelihoods to thousands of South Africans. Over time, high operating costs and other financial and technical constraints pushed Komati inexorably toward decommissioning. This will leave a hole in the local economy, as well as in energy production, which JET aims to fill.

The Komati decommissioning project is intended to serve as a crucial demonstration of how the government can deliver on its JET goals. A successful project will see Komati’s land and facilities repurposed, its workers retrained, and new sources of clean energy brought online. Ultimately, a new, clean economy will grow and thrive.

To help JET decarbonize the energy sector while maintaining grid stability and protecting livelihoods, GEAPP is working to enhance the capacities of the South African government and the state-owned electric utility, Eskom. The challenges are significant and call for top-quality talent. With that in mind, GEAPP is funding a Presidential Climate Commission and Presidential Climate Finance Task Team within the office of the Presidency to build consensus among stakeholders, coordinate, and help implement an investment pipeline. The Alliance is also supporting Eskom with its long-term Just Energy Transition strategy.

Because South Africa’s energy sector has historically been a major employer, this transition carries key risks related to livelihoods and the economic wellbeing of communities. That is why the Alliance is supporting other employment-focused projects to be piloted at Komati.

A career development program called the Renewable Energy Training Academy (RETA) will pilot the reskilling Komati’s workers. A business skills program and incubator called Small, Medium and Microenterprises (SMME) will promote entrepreneurship. The Komati redevelopment project also includes plans to create an assembly facility for the production of containerized micro-grid systems, a solar PV power plant, and a battery energy storage system.

South Africa recently set new emissions reduction goals that are a further 12-30% below the government’s previous ambitious targets.49 To achieve this will require the decommissioning of an estimated 3.4-9.2 GW of coal-fired electricity generation, equivalent to the combined capacity of 10-30 average coal-fired units. It is critical that the decommissioning and repurposing of coal power be done in a way that protects local livelihoods.

A pilot program to decommission the Komati coal-fired power station (in Mpumalanga on the country’s eastern coast) is a key stepping stone for JET. In its heyday, the Komati Power Station had a generation capacity of 1,000 MW and consumed up to 12,000 tons of coal per day from two nearby mines. Between the power station and mines, Komati once provided decent livelihoods to thousands of South Africans. Over time, high operating costs and other financial and technical constraints pushed Komati inexorably toward decommissioning. This will leave a hole in the local economy, as well as in energy production, which JET aims to fill.

The Komati decommissioning project is intended to serve as a crucial demonstration of how the government can deliver on its JET goals. A successful project will see Komati’s land and facilities repurposed, its workers retrained, and new sources of clean energy brought online. Ultimately, a new, clean economy will grow and thrive.

To help JET decarbonize the energy sector while maintaining grid stability and protecting livelihoods, GEAPP is working to enhance the capacities of the South African government and the state-owned electric utility, Eskom. The challenges are significant and call for top-quality talent. With that in mind, GEAPP is funding a Presidential Climate Commission and Presidential Climate Finance Task Team within the office of the Presidency to build consensus among stakeholders, coordinate, and help implement an investment pipeline. The Alliance is also supporting Eskom with its long-term Just Energy Transition strategy.

Because South Africa’s energy sector has historically been a major employer, this transition carries key risks related to livelihoods and the economic wellbeing of communities. That is why the Alliance is supporting other employment-focused projects to be piloted at Komati.

A career development program called the Renewable Energy Training Academy (RETA) will pilot the reskilling Komati’s workers. A business skills program and incubator called Small, Medium and Microenterprises (SMME) will promote entrepreneurship. The Komati redevelopment project also includes plans to create an assembly facility for the production of containerized micro-grid systems, a solar PV power plant, and a battery energy storage system.

As a trusted independent partner, GEAPP is playing a critical role in facilitating fundraising, offering project management and engineering support, and helping to address critical bottlenecks as they arise. GEAPP’s unique ability to convene stakeholders and catalyze private capital will be critical for South Africa to raise the tens of billions of dollars it will need to invest in its energy transition over the coming decades. A successful demonstration project at Komati will lay the foundation for the replication and scale South Africa needs in order to meet its goals and achieve a just energy transition.

Footnotes

  1. Source: IEA, “Global energy crisis shows urgency of accelerating investment in cheaper and cleaner energy in Africa”; available at: https://w/ww.iea.org/news/global-energy-crisis-shows-urgency-of-accelerating-investment-in-cheaper-and-cleaner-energy-in-africa
  2. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  3. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  4. Source: IEA, SDG7: Data and Projections; available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections
  5. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  6. Source: SEforAll “Lasting Impact: Sustainable Off-Grid Solar Delivery Models to Power Health and Education” (2019), available at: https://www.seforall.org/publications/lasting-impact-sustainable-off-grid-solar-delivery-models
  7. Source: 60_decibels: Uses and Impacts of Solar Water Pumps; available at: https://storage.googleapis.com/e4a-website-assets/Use-and-Impacts-of-SWPs-July-2021-v2.pdf
  8. Source: Authors’ calculations assuming average-sized smartphone battery (4,000 mAh, 3.8V; 15 Wh) and average electricity rates in the US and Europe ($0.15- $0.30 per kWh) vs. typical charging service cost in developing contexts.
  9. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/industry_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/financial+institutions/resources/dirty-footprint-of-broken-grid
  10. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/industry_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/financial+institutions/resources/dirty-footprint-of-broken-grid
  11. Source: World Bank, Underutilized Potential: The Business Costs of Unreliable Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 2019; Available at: https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/1813-9450-8899
  12. Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys; available at: https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/enterprisesurveys
  13. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset, IEA per capita electricity consumption data
  14. Source: Energy for Growth Hub, The Modern Energy Minimum; Available at: https://www.energyforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/01/FULL-Modern-Energy-Minimum-final-Jan2021.pdf
  15. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging US EIA data for US historicals, IEA per capita electricity consumption data, and World Bank country designations.
  16. Source: IEA Data Browser, Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  17. Source: Authors’ calculations based on regression analysis of per capita GDP and electricity consumption data vs. HDI score
  18. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging IEA per capita electricity consumption data, IEA residential share of electricity consumption data, and UN DESA World Population Prospects 2022 medium variant projections (all publicly available).
  19. Source: IEA Data Browser, Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  20. Authors’ calculations based on IEA, Tracking Transport 2021, available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/transport
  21. Solar PV indirect emissions occur during the manufacturing, distribution, installation, and disposal of systems component
  22. Source: IRENA, Power Generation Costs, 2021; Available at: https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2021
  23. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Battery Pack Prices Fall to an Average of $132/kWh, But Rising Commodity Prices Start to Bite”, available at: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/
  24. Source: IEA, Annual energy storage additions by country, 2015-2020; available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-energy-storage-additions-by-country-2015-2020
  25. Source: Author’s calculations leveraging NREL’s U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks: Q1 2021
  26. Source: Rockefeller Foundation, Electrifying Economies; Available at: https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/rf-microsites/electrifying-economies/
  27. Source: SEIA, “Solar Industry Research Data”; available at: https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data
  28. Source: Ember Data Explorer; available at: https://ember-climate.org/data/data-explorer/
  29. Source: Author modeling leveraging data from CAIT and assuming that OECD countries reach net zero by 2050, emerging economies by 2060, and energy-poor countries by 2070, with emissions growth reversed in the latter by 2040
  30. Source: Author modeling leveraging data from CAIT and assuming that emissions grow at a CAGR of 2.8 percent per year through 2050 and 1.4 percent in the following decade, only beginning to decrease starting in 2060.
  31. Source: Author’s calculations based on OPEC crude oil reserves of 267 billion barrels and and 0.3714 tCO2/barrel from ‘Carbon Majors: Accounting for Carbon and Methane Emissions 1854-2010 – Methods & Results Report’

 

GEAPP Program and Partner Project Highlights

  1. Source: Benchmarking Distribution Utilities in India, October 2020, SPI & Niti Aayog; Available at: https://smartpowerindia.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/07/WEB_SPI_Electrification_16.pdf
  2. Source: Rooftop Solar final render; Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wwvbXpuWgs
  3. Source: Rooftop Solar final render; Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wwvbXpuWgs
  4. Source: SPI Customer Report; Available at: https://smartpowerindia.org/smart-power-india-launches-its-report-on-rural-electrification-in-india/
  5. Source: Health Effects of Diesel Exhaust; Available at: https://www.cancer.org/healthy/cancer-causes/chemicals/diesel-exhaust-and-cancer.html ; https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/17/4/733 ; https://oehha.ca.gov/air/health-effects-diesel-exhaust
  6. Source: SPI Deployment estimates
  7. Source: ESMAP, Nigeria Tracking SDG 7, available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/country/nigeria
  8. Authors’ calculation based on IEA 2019 data
  9. Source: FAO,  Nigeria at a Glance, available at: https://www.fao.org/nigeria/fao-in-nigeria/nigeria-at-a-glance/en/
  10. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, available at: https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/
  11. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC
  12. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC
  13. Source: Nigeria Energy Transition Plan, available at: https://www.seforall.org/events/launch-of-nigerias-energy-transition-plan
  14. Source: International Energy Agency Energy Statistics Data Browser; Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  15. Source: International Energy Agency – South Africa; Available at: https://www.iea.org/countries/south-africa
  16. Source: South Africa Department of Energy Energy Balances 2018 (pg. 14); Available at: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2021-South-African-Energy-Sector-Report.pdf
  17. Source: GDP by Country; Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
  18. Source: UNDP Climate Promise – South Africa; Available at: https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/south-africa
  19. Source: World Bank data; available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=MM. However, SPM estimates this number to be closer to 55%.
  20. Source: https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/MM
  21. Source: SPM: Energising Agriculture in Myanmar; available at: https://downloads.ctfassets.net/nvxmg7jt07o2/aw1dQBBaMLxivJ7jRLu4Z/716b0732a3e83bfa6c3bbe50a573f565/Final_SPM-agriculturalvaluechains-final_1.pdf
  22. Source: Fulcrum, “Myanmar’s Post-coup Electricity Woes: Stalled Power Plans, Shattered Public Trust”; available at: https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-post-coup-electricity-woes-stalled-power-plans-shattered-public-trust/
  23. [1]Source: World Bank, Myanmar Rice and Pulses: Farm Production Economics and Value Chain Dynamics (2019); available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/623701579900727742/pdf/Myanmar-Rice-and-Pulses-Farm-Production-Economics-and-Value-Chain-Dynamics.pdf
  24. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  25. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  26. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  27. Source: USAID: Rapid Market Assessment of Aquaculture Sector in Myanmar (2021); available from: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00XCRW.pdf
  28. Source: World Data Population Comparison; Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/populationgrowth.php
  29. Source: GEAPP DREAM Initiative; Available at: https://www.energyalliance.org/news-insights/dream-initiative/
  30. Source: FAO Smallholder Farmer Data Portrait; Available at: https://www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/385074/
  31. Source: GIZ Solar Irrigation Market Analysis in Ethiopia, IWMI/FAO Suitability Framework for Solar Irrigation ; Available at: http://www.practica.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/04/Solar-irrigation-market-Analysis-in-Ethiopia_GIZ-NIRAS-IP-Consult-PRACTICA.pdf
  32. Source: Catalyst calculations leveraging information from the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency Minigrid Viability Report.
  33. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging World Bank Multi-tier Framework
  34. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging GEAPP “Transforming a Billion Lives” Report; Available at: https://www.energyalliance.org/reports/
  35. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging: CDM AMS-I.L. Electrification of rural communities using renewable energy — Version 3.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/CCZKY3FSL1T28BNEGDRSCKS0CY0WVA, CDM AMS-I.F.Renewable electricity generation for captive use and mini-grid — Version 4.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/VLTLVBDOD19GFSTDHAR0CRLUZ6YMGU, CDM AMS-I.B. Mechanical energy for the user with or without electrical energy — Version 12.0; Available at:https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/M204DLP0XMSWSZ9H4SIZ6W86M8RHCM and SE4ALL Emissions Tool; Available at: https://www.seforall.org/mini-grids-emissions-tool
  36. Source: NREL Island Energy Snapshot; Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62708.pdf
  37. Source: Energy Information Administration – Hawaii; Available at: https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=HI
  38. [1]Source:Energy Information Administration – Electric Power Monthly; Available at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
  39. Source: The Socio-Economic Impacts of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) on the Population of Puerto Rico; Available at: https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/PREPA-RSA-Cordero-Guzman-UTIER-REPORT-9-10-19-FIN-ENGLISH.pdf
  40. Source: The Socio-Economic Impacts of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) on the Population of Puerto Rico; Available at: https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/PREPA-RSA-Cordero-Guzman-UTIER-REPORT-9-10-19-FIN-ENGLISH.pdf
  41. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at:https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  42. Source: The World Bank, “Nigeria – Food SmartCountry Diagnostic,” 2020.; Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34522
  43. Source: PWC. Boosting rice production through increased mechanisation, (2018); available from: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/boosting-rice-production-through-increased-mechanisation.html
  44. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Food and Agriculture – Statistical Yearbook 2020. Rome, 2020. doi: 10.4060/cb1329en. ; Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/cb1329en/CB1329EN.pdf
  45. Source: Boosting rice production through increased mechanisation, (2018); available from: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/boosting-rice-production-through-increased-mechanisation.html
  46. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at:https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  47. Source: Prospects for Energy Efficiency in Sierra Leone’s Power Sector; Available at: https://www.energyeconomicgrowth.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Lucas%20Davis%20working%20paper.pdf
  48. Source: Estimations based on GEAPP Jobs report multipliers and International Labour Organization Hydropower Jobs ; Available at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_562269.pdf
  49. Source: Catalyst calculations based on World Bank Multi-tier Framework
  50. Source: CDM AMS-I.L. Electrification of rural communities using renewable energy — Version 3.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/CCZKY3FSL1T28BNEGDRSCKS0CY0WVA
  51. Source: CDM AMS-I.D. Grid connected renewable electricity generation — Version 18.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/W3TINZ7KKWCK7L8WTXFQQOFQQH4SBK
  52. Source: Catalyst calculations based on Tracking SDG 7.
  53. Source: IADB Energia Hub; Available at: https://hubenergia.org/index.php/en/indicators/access-electricity-service
  54. Source: IADB Energia Hub; Available at: https://hubenergia.org/index.php/en/indicators/access-electricity-service
  55. Source: Tracking SDG 7 Report; Available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/country/malawi
  56. Source: IRENA Statistical Profiles – Malawi; Available at: https://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/Statistical_Profiles/Africa/Malawi_Africa_RE_SP.pdf
  57. Source: Catalyst modeling based on expected improvements to power supply reliability for grid-tied customers served by the new BESS and VRE systems.
  58. Source: Catalyst modeling based on storage industry multipliers for direct BESS construction and general economy sector splits for Malawi applied to estimated employment multipliers from GEAPP’s 2021 Jobs Report.
  59. Source: Catalyst modeling based on displacement of stop-gap and backup power sources for households and businesses
  60. IEA Energy Statistics – Indonesia; Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
NIGERIA
Ending Energy Poverty with Distributed Renewable Energy
MYANMAR
Solar to Power up Myanmar’s Agricultural Economy