THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE

Ending energy poverty and assuring a just energy transition are one and the same challenge. We can bring a reliable supply of electricity to those who now lack it while also reducing carbon emissions. Any other path would undermine efforts to avoid a climate catastrophe.

No Access

The earth is now home to 8 billion people. While half of us take electricity for granted, three quarters of a billion people still don’t have basic access to the electricity needed to power their lives and livelihoods.2 Another 2.8 billion suffer from unreliable access to power and/or get by on less than the established minimum energy usage needed to emerge from energy poverty.

As a result, their daily lives and future prospects differ dramatically from those of typical developed-world residents. They not only lack the countless conveniences that electricity provides, from light to refrigeration, but also the ability to transform their lives through commerce and contact with the wider world. Energy poverty blocks their most basic avenues of opportunity.

The world has made real progress extending the benefits of electricity to more people, despite some setbacks during the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of people deprived of all access to electricity has fallen from 1.2 billion in 2010 to 0.75 billion today, representing the electrification of communities with almost half a billion people in just over a decade.3
While this is undeniably positive, progress tends to become more difficult over time. Research shows that, on our current trajectory, there will still be about 670 million people without access to electricity in 2030.4

Of the roughly 0.75 billion people without access to electricity today, the vast majority live in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.5 Without electricity, their daily lives are hard and depend disproportionately on manual labor or subsistence farming. Women, in particular, are stuck in a persistent drudgery trap. Without electric lighting at home, even basic activities can be a struggle after sunset. Adults cannot do productive work and children cannot study, impairing their hopes of rising out of the poverty into which they were born.

Whenever people lack access to modern energy, they inevitably turn to stopgap solutions. Today’s most popular lighting alternatives, such as kerosene or flashlights powered by disposable batteries, are dirty, dangerous, or expensive. Fumes from open wick kerosene lanterns can damage lungs, eyes, and general health. They also pose a real risk of fire in homes. Disposable dry cell batteries are polluting and surprisingly costly for poor families.

Energy poverty also harms communities in a variety of other ways. Lack of electricity in medical facilities reduces the availability and quality of care across the board, from common ailments to critical health services like prenatal care. This is unfair to people who are born energy-poor through no fault of their own.

Over

60 %

of healthcare facilities in SubSaharan Africa lack reliable access to electricity6

In unelectrified areas, most people live off subsistence farming. This work is strenuous and pays very little, or nothing at all. Often, smallholder plots of farmland yield just enough for a family to get by. These farmers face persistent risk of severe setbacks. Without irrigation, lack of rain can kill crops or reduce yields, exposing them to lower incomes and food insecurity. Without electricity, machinery, medical care, and other elements of modernity, they have little chance at a better life.

A simple solar powered water pump demonstrates how life-changing electricity can be. If used for irrigation, it is likely to increase crop yields, boost income, and transform farmers’ and their families’ lives. At home, a powered pump can save hours spent on collecting water for cooking, washing, or drinking, further freeing family members, especially women, to invest their time in income-generating activities, education, or leisure.

In their 2021 report on the impact of solar water pumps in 6 SSA countries, 60 Decibels found that customers spent an average of 8.8 hours per week collecting water before the solar water pumps.7

Community members queue for drinking water at Murche, Ethiopia. A new solar mini-grid power will enable large-scale cluster irrigation farming throughout the year.

Electricity is also an essential factor for accessing the information resources of the global community. Telecommunications have spread faster than electricity access. But without electricity for recharges, phones quickly become useless and modern telecommunications slip back out of reach. In the developed world, the cost to charge a phone is a fraction of a penny. But for tens of millions of people who have mobile phones but no electricity at home, that same charge-up (available from a business) can cost over 100 times as much.8

Buhari, a battery repairman, poses with a battery at his shop in Shimankar Village, Nigeria.

Most of the world’s energy-poor live in hot tropical zones and without electric fans, there is often no relief from heat, even at night. This can lead to dangerous heat stress with significant risk of harm or even mortality. Electric fans also help keep mosquitoes at bay. Without them, communities face greater risk of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue.

Photo Credit: The Rockefeller Foundation

For all people, whether urban dwelling or rural, in a factory or on a farm, access to electricity unlocks opportunities, reduces costs, and dramatically improves quality of life.

Sudesh Rai operates a flour mill, powered by solar energy in Bihar, India. Photo credit: The Rockefeller Foundation.

In their 2021 report on the impact of solar water pumps in 6 SSA countries, 60 Decibels found that customers spent an average of 8.8 hours per week collecting water before the solar water pumps.7

Community members queue for drinking water at Murche, Ethiopia. A new solar mini-grid power will enable large-scale cluster irrigation farming throughout the year.

Electricity is also an essential factor for accessing the information resources of the global community. Telecommunications have spread faster than electricity access. But without electricity for recharges, phones quickly become useless and modern telecommunications slip back out of reach. In the developed world, the cost to charge a phone is a fraction of a penny. But for tens of millions of people who have mobile phones but no electricity at home, that same charge-up (available from a business) can cost over 100 times as much.8

Buhari, a battery repairman, poses with a battery at his shop in Shimankar Village, Nigeria.

Most of the world’s energy-poor live in hot tropical zones and without electric fans, there is often no relief from heat, even at night. This can lead to dangerous heat stress with significant risk of harm or even mortality. Electric fans also help keep mosquitoes at bay. Without them, communities face greater risk of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue.

Photo Credit: The Rockefeller Foundation

For all people, whether urban dwelling or rural, in a factory or on a farm, access to electricity unlocks opportunities, reduces costs, and dramatically improves quality of life.

Sudesh Rai operates a flour mill, powered by solar energy in Bihar, India. Photo credit: The Rockefeller Foundation.

Unreliable Access

Most people in developed countries take their grid-based electricity connections for granted. But it isn’t so simple in developing countries, where the electricity grid often suffers from frequent and long-lasting outages. In these places, unreliable electricity imposes its own high costs on the energy-poor.

Reliable vs Unreliable Power Grids People and businesses with unreliable electricity face a difficult choice between accepting the costs of outages and investing in backup systems. Research shows that there are at least 25 million backup generator systems being used in energy-poor countries, with fuel costs of at least $40 billion per year (and likely far higher at today’s prices).9
Together, installed capacity of these backup generators is a whopping 350 GW, equivalent to 700 medium-sized coal plants.10 This enormous investment is as wasteful as it is understandable. There are far better ways—for the planet and for these communities—to supply people and economies with the power they need.
The direct costs of power outages are well above $100 billion per year11 and easy to imagine, but there are also high indirect costs. When electricity is intermittent, people fall back on the same expensive, dirty, dangerous, and inconvenient alternatives they used before they had any electricity at all (battery-powered flashlights, kerosene, candles, etc.).

For example, urban families in developing countries like Nigeria may have access to some electricity to power basic appliances like TVs, lights, and fans. But without dependable electricity, they will likely hesitate to invest in electric appliances such as refrigerators, electric irons, and washing machines. These tools can significantly lower the daily burden of running a household, but their value is quickly undermined if they are frequently unavailable due to power outages. The reliability of power delivery has a large impact on families’ decisions about what kinds of tools and appliances are worth buying.

Abubaka Umar, owner of a commercial charging booth in Shimankar Village, Nigeria.

Failure to invest in electric equipment has consequences. Without electric appliances, family members, and especially women, are forced to spend their days on (unpaid) labor-intensive menial tasks. If they had access to time- and labor-saving electric tools, they could instead engage in wage-earning labor, entrepreneurship, education, or other activities that would help them realize a better future.

Unreliable power is costly to businesses too, causing them to invest less in machinery. This lowers output, contributing to slower economic growth, suppressed wages, and fewer job opportunities in their communities. Those businesses that can afford to purchase and operate fossil-fuel backup power systems, such as diesel generators, must still divert precious capital away from more productive uses. Either way, livelihoods suffer.

For example, urban families in developing countries like Nigeria may have access to some electricity to power basic appliances like TVs, lights, and fans. But without dependable electricity, they will likely hesitate to invest in electric appliances such as refrigerators, electric irons, and washing machines. These tools can significantly lower the daily burden of running a household, but their value is quickly undermined if they are frequently unavailable due to power outages. The reliability of power delivery has a large impact on families’ decisions about what kinds of tools and appliances are worth buying.

Abubaka Umar, owner of a commercial charging booth in Shimankar Village, Nigeria.

Failure to invest in electric equipment has consequences. Without electric appliances, family members, and especially women, are forced to spend their days on (unpaid) labor-intensive menial tasks. If they had access to time- and labor-saving electric tools, they could instead engage in wage-earning labor, entrepreneurship, education, or other activities that would help them realize a better future.

Unreliable power is costly to businesses too, causing them to invest less in machinery. This lowers output, contributing to slower economic growth, suppressed wages, and fewer job opportunities in their communities. Those businesses that can afford to purchase and operate fossil-fuel backup power systems, such as diesel generators, must still divert precious capital away from more productive uses. Either way, livelihoods suffer.

In energy–poor countries businesses need reliable electricity access

But

68.5%

of firms experienced outages that averaged 67.5 hours per month.

Businesses in developing countries lose

6.7%

of sales every year due to electricity outages12

In energy–poor countries businesses need reliable electricity access

But

68.5%

of firms experienced outages that averaged 67.5 hours per month.

Businesses in developing countries lose

6.7%

of sales every year due to electricity outages12

Whether at home or at work, unreliable grid connections force people to adopt expensive stopgap solutions. These alternatives divert valuable resources away from more productive investments and worsen the vicious cycle of energy poverty.

Insufficient Access

Access to electricity is just the start. To understand energy poverty, we need to look beyond the simple binary question of whether a person has access to electricity. Energy consumption underpins all elements of modern life, at home and at work. Without a minimum level of energy consumption (which powers productive activities), people still cannot unlock the real benefits of electrification.

The Modern Energy Minimum (MEM) framework offers a new way to think about the importance of energy consumption. It sets a threshold of 1,000 kWh per capita per year, split between residential consumption (300 kWh) and non-residential consumption (700 kWh) as the minimum energy usage needed to emerge from energy poverty. This adds valuable nuance to the understanding of energy poverty. At least another 2.6 billion people in the world have some access to electricity but are below the MEM level of consumption.13

Research shows that the correlation between energy consumption and income is extraordinarily strong and is visible in a chart, below. There is no such thing as a high income, energy-poor country.14 Access to energy is the precursor to prosperity.

The United States met the MEM threshold in the first half of the 20th century and currently exceeds it by

1200 %

Every high-income country consumes at least 3,000 kWh per capita annually.15 Meanwhile, in many energy-poor countries, consumption levels are a tiny fraction of the MEM threshold. Per capita consumption in Haiti is under 50 kWh per year. In relatively energy-rich Nigeria, the figure is still just 133 kWh, whereas at 988 kWh, India is on the brink of crossing the 1,000 kWh threshold.16 For low- and middle-income countries, per capita energy consumption is as strongly predictive of development (measured by the Human Development Index) as is per capita GDP.17

The Strong Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Income

The MEM concept shows how reliable access to electricity is not sufficient to break out of energy poverty. Without electric tools and appliances to make productive use of energy, reliable access means relatively little. To address the need for economic growth and decent work for all, people need to consume more energy. Families and businesses need income, electric devices, and affordable electricity costs that compare favorably with the alternatives (including foregoing the work done by electricity). Increased access to any of these inputs helps produce the higher consumption associated with development.

Abdul Hadi, a tailor whose shop in Shimankar Village in Nigeria is powered by a solar mini-grid.

At work, the introduction of electrical machinery often displaces slow and inefficient manual labor, or it enables new activities that were previously impossible. For example, carpentry work can be done with hand power, but is far more efficient with electric saws, drills, and sanders. For farmers, the introduction of cold storage and other value-adding activities such as milling, grinding, pressing, cleaning, sorting, and packaging enable crops to be stored longer and sold for higher prices. Electric tools and machinery thus lead directly to higher productivity, returns on investment, and profit.

Mohammad Naushad (in front) and Mohammad Musi (behind) operate the lathe, powered by solar energy, in Bihar, India. Photo Credit: The Rockefeller Foundation

At home, electric appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and irons can save hours of daily drudgery and free up time for income-generating activities or education. When more family members earn wages or start new businesses, the whole family’s economic fortunes can improve quickly. Women tend to reinvest up to 90 percent of earnings into their families, creating a “multiplier effect” with large demonstrated impacts on child education and nutrition. And when family members can devote more time to studies, their futures grow brighter.

Rose Marie Gades, from Roche a Bateau in Haiti, has seen her income from her small business quadruple since she recieved a freezer from Fonkoze that is powered by a solar mini-grid. She is now able to send her seven children to school.

As communities approach the MEM level of electricity consumption, they experience a dramatic improvement in the quality of their daily lives. Businesses become more productive and better able to invest. Jobs shift away from unskilled manual labor and toward higher skilled and higher paid work. At home, families above the MEM threshold experience less drudgery, more comforts, and higher incomes. The use of power is transformational.

“Without electricity there is no business for us. We can not function without electricity" says Francklin Jean Charles, who owns the pictured copy shop powered by solar energy in Coteaux, Haiti.

The MEM concept shows how reliable access to electricity is not sufficient to break out of energy poverty. Without electric tools and appliances to make productive use of energy, reliable access means relatively little. To address the need for economic growth and decent work for all, people need to consume more energy. Families and businesses need income, electric devices, and affordable electricity costs that compare favorably with the alternatives (including foregoing the work done by electricity). Increased access to any of these inputs helps produce the higher consumption associated with development.

Abdul Hadi, a tailor whose shop in Shimankar Village in Nigeria is powered by a solar mini-grid.

At work, the introduction of electrical machinery often displaces slow and inefficient manual labor, or it enables new activities that were previously impossible. For example, carpentry work can be done with hand power, but is far more efficient with electric saws, drills, and sanders. For farmers, the introduction of cold storage and other value-adding activities such as milling, grinding, pressing, cleaning, sorting, and packaging enable crops to be stored longer and sold for higher prices. Electric tools and machinery thus lead directly to higher productivity, returns on investment, and profit.

Mohammad Naushad (in front) and Mohammad Musi (behind) operate the lathe, powered by solar energy, in Bihar, India. Photo Credit: The Rockefeller Foundation

At home, electric appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and irons can save hours of daily drudgery and free up time for income-generating activities or education. When more family members earn wages or start new businesses, the whole family’s economic fortunes can improve quickly. Women tend to reinvest up to 90 percent of earnings into their families, creating a “multiplier effect” with large demonstrated impacts on child education and nutrition. And when family members can devote more time to studies, their futures grow brighter.

Rose Marie Gades, from Roche a Bateau in Haiti, has seen her income from her small business quadruple since she recieved a freezer from Fonkoze that is powered by a solar mini-grid. She is now able to send her seven children to school.

As communities approach the MEM level of electricity consumption, they experience a dramatic improvement in the quality of their daily lives. Businesses become more productive and better able to invest. Jobs shift away from unskilled manual labor and toward higher skilled and higher paid work. At home, families above the MEM threshold experience less drudgery, more comforts, and higher incomes. The use of power is transformational.

“Without electricity there is no business for us. We can not function without electricity" says Francklin Jean Charles, who owns the pictured copy shop powered by solar energy in Coteaux, Haiti.

Despite the well-established links between electricity, economic development, and personal wellbeing, over 3 billion people still reside below the MEM consumption level, classifying them as energy-poor. While people with no access to electricity are a distinct population, there is significant overlap between those who have unreliable access to electricity and those who have access but consume so little power that they are still considered energy-poor. The relationships between these populations are illustrated below.

Different Types of Energy Poverty

Population 2022
8 Billion

We share this planet with 8 billion fellow humans. Everybody deserves a chance at a dignified life.

Insufficient Access
3.3 Billion

3.3 billion people have some access to electricity but consume too little. To truly benefit from its transformational power, people need reliable, affordable electricity and the tools or appliances to make productive use of it.

No Access
0.75 Billion

Unreliable Access
1.6 Billion

The three quarters of a billion people with no access to electricity have almost no ability to participate in the modern word. Unreliable electricity is a social and economic scourge the prevents people around the world from fully investing in, and taking advantage of, electrification.

Unreliable & Insufficient
1.3 Billion

Unreliable but Sufficient
0.25 Billion

Of the 1.6 billion people with unreliable access, about 0.25 billion of them still manage to consume more than the MEM threshold of power. While they are not technically considered energy-poor, their lives, communities, and economic prospects would benefit from reliable electricity.

Energy poverty is a huge and nuanced problem. Different solutions are needed to bring access, reliability, and sufficient consumption to diverse populations around the world.

Different Types of Energy Poverty

Population 2022
8 Billion

We share this planet with 8 billion fellow humans. Everybody deserves a chance at a dignified life.

Insufficient Access
3.3 Billion

3.3 billion people have some access to electricity but consume too little. To truly benefit from its transformational power, people need reliable, affordable electricity and the tools or appliances to make productive use of it.

No Access
0.75 Billion

Unreliable Access
1.6 Billion

The three quarters of a billion people with no access to electricity have almost no ability to participate in the modern word. Unreliable electricity is a social and economic scourge the prevents people around the world from fully investing in, and taking advantage of, electrification.

Unreliable & Insufficient
1.3 Billion

Unreliable but Sufficient
0.25 Billion

Of the 1.6 billion people with unreliable access, about 0.25 billion of them still manage to consume more than the MEM threshold of power. While they are not technically considered energy-poor, their lives, communities, and economic prospects would benefit from reliable electricity.

Energy poverty is a huge and nuanced problem. Different solutions are needed to bring access, reliability, and sufficient consumption to diverse populations around the world.

Every person in the world should have the opportunity to consume the MEM threshold amount of power. Achieving that will require a tremendous amount of new electricity generation.

For all the world’s energy-poor to reach the MEM level of consumption by 2030, at least another 2,000 TWh per year is needed.18 This is more than two times Japan’s current consumption.19

Ensuring a Just Energy Transition

Clean Energy Choices

The 2,000 TWh per year of additional electricity needed to lift some 3 billion people out of energy poverty is an enormous amount of power. Without this new electricity, a significant portion of humanity will face stagnant productivity, labor conditions, and wages at work. It is imperative that we end energy poverty and ensure all people can live dignified and productive lives. The critical choice is how to produce the needed energy.

New Electricity Generation Needed to End Energy Poverty

As of 2020, electricity consumption in energy-poor countries stood at approximately 2,700 TWh.

To end energy poverty by 2030, this would need to rise by nearly 75%, to 4,700 TWh per year. This additional power is equivalent to adding 4x Germany's consumption.

New Electricity Generation Needed to End Energy Poverty

As of 2020, electricity consumption in energy-poor countries stood at approximately 2,700 TWh.

To end energy poverty by 2030, this would need to rise by nearly 75%, to 4,700 TWh per year. This additional power is equivalent to adding 4x Germany's consumption.

If this new electricity generation were to come from coal, then by 2040 the world would be adding an additional 2.5 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere each year. This much CO2 is about 40 percent more than the combined annual emissions of the world’s aviation and shipping sectors.20

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel generation dwarfs renewables

While coal is the most emissions-intensive technology for generating electricity, power generated from heavy fuel oil or diesel generators is not far behind. As illustrated on the right, electricity from natural gas produces significantly less emissions than coal- or oil- based power, but when both direct and indirect emissions are counted, natural gas’ emissions are still ten times greater than those from solar PV.21

The quest to end energy poverty thus hinges on two primary considerations. First, the choice between fossil fuels and renewables for power generation is stark. The second consideration, of how that energy is distributed, is less well understood. It can be generally distilled to a question of centralized distribution systems vs distributed systems.

*Direct emissions are from generation of electricity whereas indirect emissions include infrastructure, supply chain, and construction emissions.

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel generation dwarfs renewables

While coal is the most emissions-intensive technology for generating electricity, power generated from heavy fuel oil or diesel generators is not far behind. As illustrated on the right, electricity from natural gas produces significantly less emissions than coal- or oil- based power, but when both direct and indirect emissions are counted, natural gas’ emissions are still ten times greater than those from solar PV.21

The quest to end energy poverty thus hinges on two primary considerations. First, the choice between fossil fuels and renewables for power generation is stark. The second consideration, of how that energy is distributed, is less well understood. It can be generally distilled to a question of centralized distribution systems vs distributed systems.

*Direct emissions are from generation of electricity whereas indirect emissions include infrastructure, supply chain, and construction emissions.

Levelized cost of electricity22

Conventional wisdom tells us that emissions-intensive power is less expensive than renewables. Particularly for the utility-scale projects that feed a centralized electric grid, recent data shows that this is no longer the case.

Utility-scale renewable energy from wind and solar is now more economical than the lowest cost fossil fuel-fired power plants. Many also claim renewables are impractical because of intermittency. While the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine all the time, there are solutions to this challenge.

Levelized cost of electricity22

Conventional wisdom tells us that emissions-intensive power is less expensive than renewables. Particularly for the utility-scale projects that feed a centralized electric grid, recent data shows that this is no longer the case.

Utility-scale renewable energy from wind and solar is now more economical than the lowest cost fossil fuel-fired power plants. Many also claim renewables are impractical because of intermittency. While the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine all the time, there are solutions to this challenge.

The same batteries in your phone or laptop computer can be used to store renewable energy for later. Prices for lithium-ion batteries fell by 89 percent between 2010 and 2021,23 contributing to a 500-600 percent increase in the annual deployment of battery storage.24 Costs of both renewables and energy storage have now fallen to the point where building new renewable energy systems with battery storage can be cheaper than operating existing oil-fired power stations, which are particularly commonplace in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific region.25 While this is important progress, it is also notable that, for now, energy-poor nations have not benefited nearly as much as developed ones.

Growth of Energy Storage

Renewable energy offers the developing world a better alternative to the construction of expensive power grids. In recent years, distributed renewable energy (DRE) systems have undergone a quality and affordability revolution. Compared to traditional, centralized approaches, DRE is faster to build, more reliable, more resilient, and of course, carbon-free. A 50 kW mini-grid can be deployed in as little as two months, instead of the years or decades it takes to build traditional power grid infrastructure. With uptime close to 99 percent, renewable mini-grids are also more reliable and resilient to disasters.26 This reflects a major benefit of these types of more modular, decentralized technologies.

Photo Credit: The Rockefeller Foundation

Renewable energy is experiencing an explosion of deployment in the developed world. By the middle of 2022, the United States alone had about 130 GW of installed solar PV capacity,27 which is more than double the solar PV capacity of all energy-poor countries combined and ten times the amount installed across all of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Solar panels being installed on the IPVI community center in Puerto Rico. Photo Credit: RMI

Even without considering climate change, utility-scale renewables are a cost-effective and compelling investment opportunity. The pace at which they can be deployed is remarkable and DRE offers a critical alternative to quickly bring high quality electricity access to remote and energy-poor regions. This avoids the time and investment required for grid expansion activities, while maintaining the flexibility to build an isolated mini-grid that can later interconnect with the main grid.

Renewable energy offers the developing world a better alternative to the construction of expensive power grids. In recent years, distributed renewable energy (DRE) systems have undergone a quality and affordability revolution. Compared to traditional, centralized approaches, DRE is faster to build, more reliable, more resilient, and of course, carbon-free. A 50 kW mini-grid can be deployed in as little as two months, instead of the years or decades it takes to build traditional power grid infrastructure. With uptime close to 99 percent, renewable mini-grids are also more reliable and resilient to disasters.26 This reflects a major benefit of these types of more modular, decentralized technologies.

Photo Credit: The Rockefeller Foundation

Renewable energy is experiencing an explosion of deployment in the developed world. By the middle of 2022, the United States alone had about 130 GW of installed solar PV capacity,27 which is more than double the solar PV capacity of all energy-poor countries combined and ten times the amount installed across all of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Solar panels being installed on the IPVI community center in Puerto Rico. Photo Credit: RMI

Even without considering climate change, utility-scale renewables are a cost-effective and compelling investment opportunity. The pace at which they can be deployed is remarkable and DRE offers a critical alternative to quickly bring high quality electricity access to remote and energy-poor regions. This avoids the time and investment required for grid expansion activities, while maintaining the flexibility to build an isolated mini-grid that can later interconnect with the main grid.

Environmental Implications

The needed 2,000 TWh per year28 of additional electricity (four times Germany’s current consumption) is currently less than 10% of the developed world’s consumption. If developed countries meet their emissions reduction goals in the coming years, then the future of global emissions derived from electricity generation will be determined by what happens in today’s energy-poor nations.

The chart called Fossil Fuels for the Poor, illustrates what happens if today’s energy-poor countries rely on emissions-intensive technologies to end energy poverty. In this scenario, emissions will continue to grow in line with past patterns of economic development, adding 678 gigatons of CO2 to the atmosphere by 2070, equivalent to more than 1.5x the cumulative emissions of the United States to date.30
In contrast, the chart called Clean Energy for All shows what happens if those countries receive needed support from developed countries to deploy renewable energy. In this scenario, CO2 emissions from today’s energy-poor countries will be 58 percent lower. The difference between these scenarios is equivalent to burning all of Saudi Arabia’s proven oil reserves four times over.31

The data is clear: if energy-poor countries escape energy poverty using fossil fuels, their emissions will rise to become the majority of global CO2 output by the early 2040s. This would be a disaster for the planet, negating the emissions reductions progress of the rest of the world and accelerating climate change.

We also cannot leave hundreds of millions or billions of people languishing in energy poverty and excluded from the global economy. The solution requires extraordinary effort and collaboration. Together, we must choose the low carbon development path for ending energy poverty. The world needs GEAPP.

Read about the program and partner highlights

Footnotes

  1. Source: IEA, “Global energy crisis shows urgency of accelerating investment in cheaper and cleaner energy in Africa”; available at: https://w/ww.iea.org/news/global-energy-crisis-shows-urgency-of-accelerating-investment-in-cheaper-and-cleaner-energy-in-africa
  2. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  3. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  4. Source: IEA, SDG7: Data and Projections; available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections
  5. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  6. Source: SEforAll “Lasting Impact: Sustainable Off-Grid Solar Delivery Models to Power Health and Education” (2019), available at: https://www.seforall.org/publications/lasting-impact-sustainable-off-grid-solar-delivery-models
  7. Source: 60_decibels: Uses and Impacts of Solar Water Pumps; available at: https://storage.googleapis.com/e4a-website-assets/Use-and-Impacts-of-SWPs-July-2021-v2.pdf
  8. Source: Authors’ calculations assuming average-sized smartphone battery (4,000 mAh, 3.8V; 15 Wh) and average electricity rates in the US and Europe ($0.15- $0.30 per kWh) vs. typical charging service cost in developing contexts.
  9. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/industry_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/financial+institutions/resources/dirty-footprint-of-broken-grid
  10. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/industry_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/financial+institutions/resources/dirty-footprint-of-broken-grid
  11. Source: World Bank, Underutilized Potential: The Business Costs of Unreliable Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 2019; Available at: https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/1813-9450-8899
  12. Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys; available at: https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/enterprisesurveys
  13. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset, IEA per capita electricity consumption data
  14. Source: Energy for Growth Hub, The Modern Energy Minimum; Available at: https://www.energyforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/01/FULL-Modern-Energy-Minimum-final-Jan2021.pdf
  15. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging US EIA data for US historicals, IEA per capita electricity consumption data, and World Bank country designations.
  16. Source: IEA Data Browser, Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  17. Source: Authors’ calculations based on regression analysis of per capita GDP and electricity consumption data vs. HDI score
  18. Source: Authors’ calculations, leveraging IEA per capita electricity consumption data, IEA residential share of electricity consumption data, and UN DESA World Population Prospects 2022 medium variant projections (all publicly available).
  19. Source: IEA Data Browser, Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  20. Authors’ calculations based on IEA, Tracking Transport 2021, available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/transport
  21. Solar PV indirect emissions occur during the manufacturing, distribution, installation, and disposal of systems component
  22. Source: IRENA, Power Generation Costs, 2021; Available at: https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2021
  23. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Battery Pack Prices Fall to an Average of $132/kWh, But Rising Commodity Prices Start to Bite”, available at: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/
  24. Source: IEA, Annual energy storage additions by country, 2015-2020; available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-energy-storage-additions-by-country-2015-2020
  25. Source: Author’s calculations leveraging NREL’s U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks: Q1 2021
  26. Source: Rockefeller Foundation, Electrifying Economies; Available at: https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/rf-microsites/electrifying-economies/
  27. Source: SEIA, “Solar Industry Research Data”; available at: https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data
  28. Source: Ember Data Explorer; available at: https://ember-climate.org/data/data-explorer/
  29. Source: Author modeling leveraging data from CAIT and assuming that OECD countries reach net zero by 2050, emerging economies by 2060, and energy-poor countries by 2070, with emissions growth reversed in the latter by 2040
  30. Source: Author modeling leveraging data from CAIT and assuming that emissions grow at a CAGR of 2.8 percent per year through 2050 and 1.4 percent in the following decade, only beginning to decrease starting in 2060.
  31. Source: Author’s calculations based on OPEC crude oil reserves of 267 billion barrels and and 0.3714 tCO2/barrel from ‘Carbon Majors: Accounting for Carbon and Methane Emissions 1854-2010 – Methods & Results Report’

 

GEAPP Program and Partner Project Highlights

  1. Source: Benchmarking Distribution Utilities in India, October 2020, SPI & Niti Aayog; Available at: https://smartpowerindia.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/07/WEB_SPI_Electrification_16.pdf
  2. Source: Rooftop Solar final render; Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wwvbXpuWgs
  3. Source: Rooftop Solar final render; Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wwvbXpuWgs
  4. Source: SPI Customer Report; Available at: https://smartpowerindia.org/smart-power-india-launches-its-report-on-rural-electrification-in-india/
  5. Source: Health Effects of Diesel Exhaust; Available at: https://www.cancer.org/healthy/cancer-causes/chemicals/diesel-exhaust-and-cancer.html ; https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/17/4/733 ; https://oehha.ca.gov/air/health-effects-diesel-exhaust
  6. Source: SPI Deployment estimates
  7. Source: ESMAP, Nigeria Tracking SDG 7, available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/country/nigeria
  8. Authors’ calculation based on IEA 2019 data
  9. Source: FAO,  Nigeria at a Glance, available at: https://www.fao.org/nigeria/fao-in-nigeria/nigeria-at-a-glance/en/
  10. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, available at: https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/
  11. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC
  12. Source: IFC, The Dirty Footprint of the Broken Grid, 2019; Available at: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/2cd3d83d-4f00-4d42-9bdc-4afdc2f5dbc7/20190919-Full-Report-The-Dirty-Footprint-of-the-Broken-Grid.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mR9UpXC
  13. Source: Nigeria Energy Transition Plan, available at: https://www.seforall.org/events/launch-of-nigerias-energy-transition-plan
  14. Source: International Energy Agency Energy Statistics Data Browser; Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser
  15. Source: International Energy Agency – South Africa; Available at: https://www.iea.org/countries/south-africa
  16. Source: South Africa Department of Energy Energy Balances 2018 (pg. 14); Available at: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2021-South-African-Energy-Sector-Report.pdf
  17. Source: GDP by Country; Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
  18. Source: UNDP Climate Promise – South Africa; Available at: https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/south-africa
  19. Source: World Bank data; available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=MM. However, SPM estimates this number to be closer to 55%.
  20. Source: https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/MM
  21. Source: SPM: Energising Agriculture in Myanmar; available at: https://downloads.ctfassets.net/nvxmg7jt07o2/aw1dQBBaMLxivJ7jRLu4Z/716b0732a3e83bfa6c3bbe50a573f565/Final_SPM-agriculturalvaluechains-final_1.pdf
  22. Source: Fulcrum, “Myanmar’s Post-coup Electricity Woes: Stalled Power Plans, Shattered Public Trust”; available at: https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-post-coup-electricity-woes-stalled-power-plans-shattered-public-trust/
  23. [1]Source: World Bank, Myanmar Rice and Pulses: Farm Production Economics and Value Chain Dynamics (2019); available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/623701579900727742/pdf/Myanmar-Rice-and-Pulses-Farm-Production-Economics-and-Value-Chain-Dynamics.pdf
  24. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  25. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  26. Source: Myint, T and Myo Thu, K – National Export Strategy (2019) Rubber Sector Strategy, 2015-2019; retrieved from https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2606
  27. Source: USAID: Rapid Market Assessment of Aquaculture Sector in Myanmar (2021); available from: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00XCRW.pdf
  28. Source: World Data Population Comparison; Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/populationgrowth.php
  29. Source: GEAPP DREAM Initiative; Available at: https://www.energyalliance.org/news-insights/dream-initiative/
  30. Source: FAO Smallholder Farmer Data Portrait; Available at: https://www.fao.org/family-farming/detail/en/c/385074/
  31. Source: GIZ Solar Irrigation Market Analysis in Ethiopia, IWMI/FAO Suitability Framework for Solar Irrigation ; Available at: http://www.practica.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/04/Solar-irrigation-market-Analysis-in-Ethiopia_GIZ-NIRAS-IP-Consult-PRACTICA.pdf
  32. Source: Catalyst calculations leveraging information from the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency Minigrid Viability Report.
  33. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging World Bank Multi-tier Framework
  34. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging GEAPP “Transforming a Billion Lives” Report; Available at: https://www.energyalliance.org/reports/
  35. Source: Catalyst estimations leveraging: CDM AMS-I.L. Electrification of rural communities using renewable energy — Version 3.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/CCZKY3FSL1T28BNEGDRSCKS0CY0WVA, CDM AMS-I.F.Renewable electricity generation for captive use and mini-grid — Version 4.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/VLTLVBDOD19GFSTDHAR0CRLUZ6YMGU, CDM AMS-I.B. Mechanical energy for the user with or without electrical energy — Version 12.0; Available at:https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/M204DLP0XMSWSZ9H4SIZ6W86M8RHCM and SE4ALL Emissions Tool; Available at: https://www.seforall.org/mini-grids-emissions-tool
  36. Source: NREL Island Energy Snapshot; Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62708.pdf
  37. Source: Energy Information Administration – Hawaii; Available at: https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=HI
  38. [1]Source:Energy Information Administration – Electric Power Monthly; Available at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
  39. Source: The Socio-Economic Impacts of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) on the Population of Puerto Rico; Available at: https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/PREPA-RSA-Cordero-Guzman-UTIER-REPORT-9-10-19-FIN-ENGLISH.pdf
  40. Source: The Socio-Economic Impacts of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) on the Population of Puerto Rico; Available at: https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/12/PREPA-RSA-Cordero-Guzman-UTIER-REPORT-9-10-19-FIN-ENGLISH.pdf
  41. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at:https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  42. Source: The World Bank, “Nigeria – Food SmartCountry Diagnostic,” 2020.; Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34522
  43. Source: PWC. Boosting rice production through increased mechanisation, (2018); available from: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/boosting-rice-production-through-increased-mechanisation.html
  44. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Food and Agriculture – Statistical Yearbook 2020. Rome, 2020. doi: 10.4060/cb1329en. ; Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/cb1329en/CB1329EN.pdf
  45. Source: Boosting rice production through increased mechanisation, (2018); available from: https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/publications/boosting-rice-production-through-increased-mechanisation.html
  46. Source: Tracking SDG7 – SDG 7.1.1 Electrification Dataset; available at:https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/downloads
  47. Source: Prospects for Energy Efficiency in Sierra Leone’s Power Sector; Available at: https://www.energyeconomicgrowth.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Lucas%20Davis%20working%20paper.pdf
  48. Source: Estimations based on GEAPP Jobs report multipliers and International Labour Organization Hydropower Jobs ; Available at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_562269.pdf
  49. Source: Catalyst calculations based on World Bank Multi-tier Framework
  50. Source: CDM AMS-I.L. Electrification of rural communities using renewable energy — Version 3.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/CCZKY3FSL1T28BNEGDRSCKS0CY0WVA
  51. Source: CDM AMS-I.D. Grid connected renewable electricity generation — Version 18.0; Available at: https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/DB/W3TINZ7KKWCK7L8WTXFQQOFQQH4SBK
  52. Source: Catalyst calculations based on Tracking SDG 7.
  53. Source: IADB Energia Hub; Available at: https://hubenergia.org/index.php/en/indicators/access-electricity-service
  54. Source: IADB Energia Hub; Available at: https://hubenergia.org/index.php/en/indicators/access-electricity-service
  55. Source: Tracking SDG 7 Report; Available at: https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/country/malawi
  56. Source: IRENA Statistical Profiles – Malawi; Available at: https://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/Statistical_Profiles/Africa/Malawi_Africa_RE_SP.pdf
  57. Source: Catalyst modeling based on expected improvements to power supply reliability for grid-tied customers served by the new BESS and VRE systems.
  58. Source: Catalyst modeling based on storage industry multipliers for direct BESS construction and general economy sector splits for Malawi applied to estimated employment multipliers from GEAPP’s 2021 Jobs Report.
  59. Source: Catalyst modeling based on displacement of stop-gap and backup power sources for households and businesses
  60. IEA Energy Statistics – Indonesia; Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser